Your Wealth. Your World. Your Monthly Perspective.
The final quarter of 2026 is underway, and there is plenty to unpack. This edition brings together the economic indicators shaping the investment environment, Harbour Wealth’s outlook for the year ahead, a closer look at quarterly strategy performance and two structured products currently available for consideration. We also explore why the currency in which you measure wealth matters and explain the increased offshore discretionary allowance.
The markets at a glance
The figures below provide a snapshot of the global and South African economic environment. Exchange rates, interest rates and inflation are presented from the supplied Harbour Review as at 30 September 2026; GDP figures relate to the year ended June 2026, and unemployment figures reflect their latest stated reporting periods.
Economic Indicators
| Region | Interest rate | Inflation | GDP growth to Jun 2026 | Latest unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 4.00% | 3.7% | 2.2% ↓ | 4.2% |
| UK | 3.75% | 3.1% | 1.4% ↑ | 4.9% |
| Europe | 2.65% | 3.8% | 1.2% ↑ | 6.4% |
| South Africa | 7.25% | 4.4% | 0.9% ↓ | 33.6% |
| China | 3.00% | 0.9% | 4.3% ↓ | 5.3% |
| India | 5.50% | 5.54% | 7.8% → | 5.0% |
Exchange rates (30 September 2026): USD/ZAR 16.43 · GBP/ZAR 21.79 · EUR/ZAR 18.64 · CNY/ZAR 2.45 · USD/CNY 6.71 · INR/ZAR 0.17
Harbour Review | Outlook for the next 12 months
Our investment outlook remains constructive, although demanding developed-market valuations leave less room for disappointment. Harbour is maintaining its current model portfolio allocations, including its US overweight, because the investment team has not yet identified an alternative with a sufficiently compelling improvement in expected return relative to risk and implementation costs.
US economic resilience and the potential earnings contribution from artificial intelligence continue to support this positioning. The investment case is not without conditions: elevated AI-related capital spending must increasingly translate into revenue, sustainable margins and cash generation. A period of consolidation is possible if results merely meet market expectations.
Inflation and monetary policy remain key risks. Persistent energy-price pressure could keep inflation elevated and interest rates restrictive. In South Africa, the resources outlook supports current exposure, while fixed income continues to provide income and diversification in more conservative portfolios.
The team will reassess positioning as company earnings, economic conditions and relative valuations evolve. Any change remains guided by each portfolio’s mandate and investment horizon.
Investment strategies | Understanding Q3 2026 performance
HA Global Growth (USD) returned +0.12% in Q3 2026. World equities (+0.74 percentage points), artificial intelligence (+0.37) and US equities (+0.25) contributed positively. World infrastructure (-0.64) and Chinese equities (-0.62) were the largest detractors.
HA Index Growth Plus (ZAR) returned +0.04% in Q3 2026. World equities (+0.75) and US equities (+0.25) contributed positively, while Chinese equities (-0.53), world property (-0.29) and South African banks and insurers (-0.19) weighed on the quarter.
The accompanying market-return chart is a separate asset-class comparison from the supplied ‘ZAR CCY’ workbook. It is not a chart of Harbour Wealth model-portfolio returns. The market indicators are taken from the workbook tab headed ZAR CCY. However, some international series still carry USD, EUR, GBP and CNY labels in that tab. The currency basis and reporting cut-off date should therefore be confirmed before publication.
Returns and contribution figures are supplied, rounded and may not sum exactly. Strategies differ in mandate and currency; past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source: Morningstar
Source: Morningstar
Structured products | Two opportunities to understand
Investec ZAR Developed Markets Digital Plus: a ZAR-denominated structure linked to an equally weighted basket of the S&P 500, Nikkei 225, Euro Stoxx 50 and FTSE 100. Its indicative digital return is 35% if the basket return is at least zero at maturity, with additional participation in basket returns above the stated threshold. The term is approximately three years and seven months. The product review describes 100% conditional capital protection provided the index is not down by more than 30% at maturity. Funds should reflect by 15 November 2026; subscription closes 20 November 2026. The indicative rate is subject to final determination.
Morgan Stanley Classic Autocallable Note: a USD-denominated structure linked to the S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and Euro Stoxx 50. If all underlying indices are flat or positive on an autocall observation date, the note redeems early with invested capital plus a potential 6% USD return for each elapsed six-month period. Maximum term is six years, subject to possible early redemption. The product review describes conditional capital protection provided the relevant index is not down by more than 35% at maturity. Funds should reflect by 31 October 2026; subscription closes 6 November 2026.
Both structures carry market and issuer credit risk. Capital protection is conditional, and losses may occur if the stated protection conditions are breached or the issuer fails to meet its obligations. Fees, liquidity constraints, the exact observation mechanics and final contractual terms must be understood before investing. Please discuss suitability and obtain the full term sheet from your Harbour Wealth adviser.
Did you know? | Why coins have ridged edges
When gold and silver coins circulated, people sometimes shaved small amounts of precious metal from the edges while leaving the coins in circulation. Ridged or otherwise marked edges helped make this ‘clipping’ easier to detect. It is a small design feature with a long history of protecting trust in money.
What currency is your future priced in?
A portfolio can grow in rands while its international purchasing power declines. Consider the article’s hypothetical example: R900,000 grows by 10% to R990,000. If the exchange rate moves from R18 to R20 per US dollar, the portfolio’s dollar value changes from $50,000 to $49,500, a 1% decline before costs and taxes.
This matters even when you live and spend in South Africa. Fuel, imported goods, international travel and overseas education can all be influenced by global prices and exchange rates. An appropriate offshore allocation can diversify exposure across currencies, economies and industries, although foreign assets can fall in value and a stronger rand can reduce translated returns.
There is also an important difference between accessing offshore investments through a rand-denominated local fund and investing directly offshore through a foreign-currency account or structure. The appropriate approach depends on liquidity needs, future spending, costs, taxes, estate planning and investment horizon.
Education spotlight | Your offshore discretionary allowance has increased to R2 million
The October mailer highlights an increase in the Single Discretionary Allowance (SDA) from R1 million to R2 million per calendar year. For South Africans considering international diversification, the change potentially provides more flexibility to move funds abroad for permitted purposes.
The allowance is not an investment product or a recommendation to transfer the full amount. The appropriate offshore allocation depends on your existing portfolio, future foreign-currency needs and South African obligations. Before acting, confirm the applicable exchange-control requirements, tax implications, eligibility and supporting documentation with your adviser.
The allowance change and effective date should be checked against the relevant current regulatory notice before publication.
Your financial world, all in one place
Harbour Highlights brings together market developments, investment strategy performance, financial education and Harbour Wealth updates. Explore more at https://harbourwealth.com/harbour-highlights/ or speak to your Harbour Wealth adviser about the topics covered in this edition.
